Large differences in regional energy prices are set to affect industrial competitiveness, influencing investment decisions and company strategies. The extraordinary rise of light tight oil in the United States will play a major role in meeting global demand growth over the next decade, but the Middle East – the only large source of low-cost oil – will remain at the centre of the longer-term oil outlook. India is set to overtake China in the 2020s as the principal source of growth in global energy demand.
Brazil, a special focus in WEO-2013, maintains one of the least carbon-intensive energy sectors in the world, despite experiencing an 80% increase in energy use to 2035 and moving into the top ranks of global oil producers. Energy demand in OECD countries barely rises and by 2035 is less than half that of non-OECD countries. Low-carbon energy sources meet around 40% of the growth in global energy demand. In some regions, rapid expansion of wind and solar PV raises fundamental questions about the design of power markets and their ability to ensure adequate investment and long-term reliability.
Action to reduce the impact of high energy prices does not mean diminishing efforts to address climate change. Energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions are projected to rise by 20% to 2035, leaving the world on track for a long-term average temperature increase of 3.6 °C, far above the internationally-agreed 2 °C climate target. The report emphasises the importance of carefully designed subsidies to renewables, which totalled $101 billion in 2012 and expand to $220 billion in 2035 to support the anticipated level of deployment.
An in-depth focus on oil in WEO-2013 looks at how technology is opening up new types of resources, such as light tight oil and ultra-deepwater fields, that were until recently considered too difficult or expensive to access. Despite new resources being unlocked, national oil companies and their host governments still control 80% of the world’s proven-plus-probable oil reserves.
Further details can be found on the IEA Website at World Energy Outlook 2013 .
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